Pastoralists flee as drought and conflicts bite in Northern Kenya

By Daisy Okiring

Over the past century, global temperatures have risen by 1.2°C, triggering extreme environmental changes. Africa is warming 1.5 times faster than the global average, and Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are among the hardest hit. More than 80% of the country experiences prolonged droughts, making survival increasingly difficult for pastoralist communities.

Between 2014 and 2022, Kenya suffered its longest drought in recorded history. The crisis wiped out over 2.6 million livestock, pushing 4.4 million people into urgent need of food assistance. For the pastoralists of Northern Kenya, where life depends on livestock, this devastation is more than just economic—it is existential.

Scientists warn that if global temperatures exceed 2°C by 2050, up to 50 million Africans could be displaced. In Northern Kenya, this future is already here. The land is drying up, water sources are vanishing, and thousands of families are on the move, searching for survival.

Read more: Operation Ondoa Jangili: Inside the race to curb banditry in Northern Kenya

“We have walked for weeks with our animals, but we still find no water. Our children are hungry, and our animals are dying,” says a herder from Marsabit.

Climate change and desertification

Kenya’s ASALs receive as little as 150mm of rainfall per year, making them extremely vulnerable to desertification. Over the past few decades, drought cycles have become alarmingly shorter. In the 1960s, droughts occurred every ten years. By the 1990s, they struck every five years. Today, they are an annual catastrophe.

The latest drought, which stretched from 2020 to 2023, wiped out 60% of livestock in some areas, forcing pastoralists to abandon their traditional way of life. In Marsabit alone, over 70% of families have lost their entire herds.

Mass migration in search of survival

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 216 million people worldwide will be displaced due to climate change by 2050. In Kenya, the migration crisis is already unfolding.

In Marsabit, 62% of pastoralist households have migrated due to drought. In Turkana, more than 200,000 people were displaced in 2022 alone. In Isiolo, more than half of families report having at least one member forced to migrate for work.

Also read: Here is why you are experiencing high temperatures

Migration has brought new struggles for these communities. Traditionally, men travel long distances with livestock while women and children remain behind. With food and water becoming scarce, school dropouts have increased, and child labor has become more common.

Fighting over water and land

As pastoralist communities migrate, competition for resources intensifies. Conflict over grazing land and water has doubled in the past decade. Cattle raids and territorial disputes are escalating into deadly confrontations.

In Turkana and Pokot, violent clashes over livestock have become routine, leaving hundreds dead each year. In Marsabit, clan-based conflicts have erupted over scarce pasture. In Laikipia, armed pastoralists have invaded private farms, desperate to feed their starving animals.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reports that since 2020, more than 400 deaths have been linked to conflicts over land and water in Northern Kenya.

“We used to graze peacefully with our neighbors, but as the land dries up, competition over water and pasture has turned us into enemies,” says a community elder in Isiolo.

Government and NGO response: A race against time

The Kenyan government has recognized the urgency of climate-induced migration and introduced several policies to address it. The 2016 Climate Change Act requires counties to allocate 2% of their budgets to climate action. The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) has implemented early warning systems and food relief programs.

Non-governmental organizations like IOM and USAID are also stepping in to provide emergency aid. However, experts warn that short-term relief efforts are not enough. Sustainable solutions such as irrigation projects, climate-smart agriculture, and reforestation are desperately needed.

Urgent steps needed

The silent crisis of climate-induced migration in Northern Kenya is no longer just an environmental issue—it is a humanitarian and security emergency. Without immediate intervention, the displacement of millions will continue, leading to deeper poverty and escalating violence.

Investment in water infrastructure is crucial. More boreholes, dams, and rainwater harvesting systems are needed to prevent further desertification. Sustainable land management practices, such as afforestation and soil conservation, must be prioritized. Pastoralists need support to diversify their livelihoods, introducing drought-resistant crops and alternative income sources. Stronger conflict resolution mechanisms must also be put in place to mediate disputes between migrating communities.

The fate of Northern Kenya’s pastoralists serves as a warning to the world: climate change is not a distant threat—it is happening now. Unless urgent action is taken, the silent crisis will only grow louder.