Why Kalonzo’s 2027 presidential bid is crippling

By Wanderi Kamau

As the clock ticks toward Kenya’s 2027 General Election, the political chessboard is taking shape.

Key players are staking their claims, consolidating support, and rebranding their political vehicles to capture the imagination of the electorate.

However, for Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, the journey seems steep and uncertain.

Once touted as a formidable presidential contender, Kalonzo’s bid is increasingly being eclipsed, raising questions about his strategy, leadership, and relevance in a fast-evolving political environment.

Despite multiple attempts at the presidency and having served as Vice President, Kalonzo’s current approach to 2027 has left even his allies perplexed.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, a long-time loyalist, admits that Kalonzo’s silence and lack of political aggression is “worrying.”

“We expected him to step out of the shadows after Raila Odinga’s political alignment with Ruto. That was the moment to shine, to lead the opposition from the front. But that moment slipped,” said Maanzo in a recent interview with Newsflash.

Wiper party stuck in the Ukambani cocoon

One of the biggest failures hurting Kalonzo’s ambitions is the inability to nationalize the Wiper Democratic Movement. The party remains largely confined to the Ukambani region, with minimal presence or influence outside its traditional base.

Unlike UDA and ODM, which have undergone strategic transformations under visible and vibrant secretaries-general like Hassan Omar and Edwin Sifuna respectively, Wiper lacks national figures who can sell the party brand beyond Eastern Kenya.

Political analyst Rosebella Kiilu observes that Kalonzo’s reluctance to inject new energy and leadership into Wiper is costing him credibility.

“The last time Wiper had a visible Secretary-General was when Hassan Omar held the post. Since then, there has been a vacuum. Kalonzo remains the only visible face of the party, and that’s politically risky,” she notes.

Lack of grassroots mobilization

The political winds shifted dramatically when Raila Odinga exited active opposition politics and started cooperating with President William Ruto. This presented Kalonzo with a golden opportunity to inherit the opposition mantle. But instead of galvanizing support, he has remained passive, creating room for others to take charge.

In stark contrast, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, after his impeachment, has staged a massive grassroots comeback.

Wiper Party leader and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Photo/The Standard

From Nyeri to Kirinyaga and from Laikipia to Meru, Gachagua has been on an aggressive charm offensive. In fact, insiders say Gachagua is attracting larger crowds even in Ukambani than Kalonzo himself.

“Leadership is not handed on a silver platter. Gachagua is building his base, laying party structures, and talking to the people. Kalonzo, on the other hand, is waiting to be endorsed,” said political commentator Brian Leteipa. “Unfortunately, in Kenya’s politics, power is not given; it is taken.”

The “waiting syndrome” and gentleman politics

Kalonzo’s political trajectory reveals a pattern of waiting to be anointed. In 2013 and 2017, he backed Raila Odinga, believing in a future endorsement. In 2022, despite having strong backing in Ukambani, he again played second fiddle to the Raila-Karua ticket. Political observers argue that this habitual passivity is crippling his credibility as a serious contender.

“The gentleman tag has been his greatest undoing,” noted Leteipa. “He is waiting for a kingmaker moment that may never come, especially now that even Uhuru Kenyatta has reportedly shifted support to former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i.”

Uhuru’s surprise pivot toward Matiang’i was interpreted by insiders as a major blow to Kalonzo. “Uhuru has been in the game long enough to spot political viability. His dumping Kalonzo for Matiang’i is symbolic of the perception that Kalonzo may not have what it takes,” Dr Kiilu remarked.

Media silence and diminishing visibility

Kalonzo’s lack of strategic media engagement has further dimmed his political flame. In a digital era where headlines shape political perception, Kalonzo has remained largely absent from the national conversation. Meanwhile, newcomers like Matiang’i and former Chief Justice David Maraga are increasingly occupying media space.

“Publicity drives narrative, and narrative wins elections,” said communication strategist David Mulwa. “If you are not in the headlines, you are not in the race. Kalonzo is being by-passed by people who were not even in the political scene two years ago.”

Leadership failure after Raila’s exit

The final nail in the coffin of Kalonzo’s struggling campaign may be his failure to consolidate Azimio la Umoja after Raila’s departure. Instead of emerging as the opposition’s natural successor, Kalonzo allowed other key figures like Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa to drift away and rebrand their respective parties.

Karua rebranded Narc-Kenya into the People’s Liberation Party (PLP), and Wamalwa distanced DAP-K from Azimio, citing lack of leadership. Analysts say this was a leadership test that Kalonzo failed.

“Those were co-principals who should have been brought closer. He should have united them, or brought in new voices. But he let them go. That says a lot,” said Dr Kiilu.

According to political analysts,the 2027 presidential race may still be two years away, but the groundwork is being laid now.

“Kalonzo Musyoka, though an experienced statesman, seems to be watching the action from the sidelines. With internal party stagnation, absence of national visibility, and growing irrelevance within the opposition space, his campaign appears to be limping—if not already paralyzed,” says Kahihia Muraguri, a political analyst.

“Unless he dramatically shifts gears, finds a fresh team, and boldly claims the political space he deserves, Kalonzo risks going down in history not as a president-in-waiting, but as a political figure who waited too long, “ says Muraguri.