Mudavadi sidelined as Raila cements grip in Kenya Kwanza

By Newsflash Reporter

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is facing heightened political uncertainty, with questions mounting over his diminishing influence within the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Despite holding a top post in government, the recent merger of his former party, Amani National Congress (ANC), with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has sparked unease among his supporters, particularly in his Western Kenya stronghold.

The formal dissolution of ANC in March has left a leadership vacuum and triggered anxiety about Mudavadi’s future political direction.

Although he has publicly reiterated his commitment to the government and its agenda, recent political developments — including the President’s signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Raila Odinga’s ODM — have shifted the political balance, raising speculation over Mudavadi’s role in the evolving power structure.

Political analysts argue that the broadening coalition landscape, which now accommodates ODM, could marginalize Mudavadi. His inability to command a personal political party or mobilize a strong regional bloc is seen as a key weakness.

“The merger with UDA might have initially boosted Mudavadi’s position, but Raila’s entry into government has left him politically isolated,” said analyst Moses Ombayo.

No political party, no bargaining power

Although some former ANC leaders have been absorbed into UDA’s leadership — including Issa Timamy as Deputy Party Leader and MP Omboko Milemba as Deputy Secretary-General — Mudavadi himself lacks an independent political vehicle, which analysts say weakens his ability to negotiate or assert influence ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Without a party, you lose your bargaining power. In Kenya, political influence is built on the strength of your party,” said one political observer familiar with Western Kenya dynamics.

Adding to the pressure is the growing influence of other regional parties, like Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya and the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), which are gaining ground in counties like Vihiga, Bungoma, Kakamega, and Trans Nzoia — areas once loyal to Mudavadi.

Mounting criticism from Mulembe

Some of his critics, including Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, have publicly questioned Mudavadi’s ability to push for development in Western Kenya. Khalwale blamed Mudavadi’s silence and inaction, stating, “Three years in and we’re still hearing promises with no progress. It’s time to act.”

There are also concerns about the fate of the pre-election deal that promised Mudavadi and Wetang’ula 30 percent of government positions in exchange for their support. With Raila now entering the fold, some fear that agreement could be sidelined.

Still, Mudavadi’s allies remain hopeful. Vihiga Woman Representative Beatrice Adagala has called for patience, expressing confidence that the ANC-UDA deal will pay off in the long term.

While some speculate Mudavadi is eyeing the 2032 presidency, others suggest his most viable path is to secure the Deputy President slot in the next election.

As the political landscape continues to shift, it remains to be seen whether Mudavadi can reassert his relevance or whether the changing dynamics will leave him further sidelined.