ODM leader Raila Odinga. Photo/PSCU
By Newsflash Correspondent
The political battle for the soul of the Mulembe Nation is heating up following the recent working agreement between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
This move has sent shockwaves through the camps of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, who previously held significant influence in Western Kenya.
The two leaders had negotiated a 30% stake in government under the Kenya Kwanza power-sharing deal, but Raila’s entry threatens to shake up the political landscape.
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With each leader claiming a stake in the region, the battle for the hearts and minds of the Abaluhya people is set to escalate ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The political battlefield: Mulembe Nation at a crossroads
Western Kenya, commonly referred to as Mulembe Nation, consists of five counties: Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia, and Trans Nzoia. According to the 2019 census, the region has a population of over 6.8 million people, with the 2022 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) voter register indicating that Western Kenya had approximately 2.2 million registered voters.
In the 2022 General Election, Raila Odinga secured the majority of the votes in the region, with Kakamega and Busia overwhelmingly voting for him. However, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula played a crucial role in delivering Bungoma, which saw Ruto make inroads in the region.
Now, with Raila working with Ruto, the big question is: who will emerge as the undisputed king of Western Kenya politics?
Mudavadi and Wetang’ula: Clinging to influence
Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have long been seen as the political heavyweights of Western Kenya. The duo negotiated a significant stake in Ruto’s government, with Mudavadi serving as the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Wetang’ula as Speaker of the National Assembly.
However, Raila’s entry into cooperation with Ruto presents a new challenge. If the ODM leader manages to gain favor within Kenya Kwanza, it could significantly reduce Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s influence in decision-making.
“Mudavadi and Wetang’ula thought they had secured a permanent space in Kenya Kwanza, but Raila’s presence changes everything,” says political analyst Mark Wanjala. “Ruto is playing a game of divide and rule, and it’s now a survival test for them.”
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Mudavadi’s ally, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, remains skeptical about his influence. “Musalia has never been a strong political mobilizer. He has always depended on goodwill rather than strategy,” he argues.
On the other hand, Wetang’ula’s ally, Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, insists that Ford-Kenya remains the dominant party in Bungoma. “Our people have stood with Wetang’ula, and he remains a key pillar in Kenya Kwanza. Raila’s entry will not shake us,” Lusaka says.
Raila’s silent comeback in Western Kenya
Despite losing the 2022 presidential election, Raila’s hold on Western Kenya remains significant. He has key allies in the region, including former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi. Oparanya has been particularly vocal in drumming up support for Raila’s continued influence in the region.
“Raila Odinga is the only leader who has consistently fought for Western Kenya. Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are in government but have nothing to show for it,” says Oparanya.
Analysts believe that Raila’s ability to regain control of Western Kenya will depend on how he navigates his newfound relationship with Ruto. If he manages to extract tangible benefits for the region, he could easily regain his dominance.
“Western Kenya voted for Raila overwhelmingly in 2022. If he can prove that this new cooperation with Ruto brings development, he will remain the region’s most trusted leader,” says Wanjala.
Who will blink first?
The battle for Mulembe Nation is far from over. While Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are determined to maintain their influence, Raila’s re-entry into the political equation is shaking things up.
The biggest challenge for Mudavadi and Wetang’ula is whether they can deliver meaningful development to the region under Ruto’s government. If they fail, Raila’s allies will use it as ammunition to prove that the duo is politically weak.
As 2027 approaches, the Abaluhya people will be watching closely to see which leader truly has their interests at heart. Will Raila reclaim his dominance, or will Mudavadi and Wetang’ula finally cement their authority in Mulembe Nation?
