Natembeya is most preferred Abaluhya kingpin- Infotrak

By Newsflash Writer

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has emerged as the most influential and preferred political figure within the Luhya community, according to a new opinion poll released by research firm Infotrak on Thursday, January 8, 2025.

The survey places Natembeya firmly at the centre of Western Kenya politics at a time when the region is reassessing its leadership ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The Infotrak “Mulembe Nation Poll” shows that 50 per cent of respondents identified Natembeya as the leader who currently exerts the most influence in Abaluhya politics. This places him well ahead of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi at 32 per cent, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at 31 per cent, and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula at 29 per cent.

Other notable figures mentioned include former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya (14 per cent), DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa (13 per cent) and former Kakamega senator Cleophas Malala (10 per cent).

The results point to a shifting power dynamic in the region, with Natembeya’s popularity cutting across age groups, gender and counties, particularly strong in Trans Nzoia, where his influence stood at 70 per cent.

Analysts attribute Natembeya’s rise to his confrontational stance on governance, vocal criticism of the national administration and his appeal as a populist leader willing to articulate regional grievances without ambiguity.

Kingpin debate and regional politics

When respondents were asked to identify the single most dominant political “kingpin” in Western Kenya, Natembeya again led the field, though with a lower margin. He was named by 36 per cent of those surveyed as the primary champion of Luhya interests. Mudavadi followed at 18 per cent, while Wetang’ula garnered 14 per cent. Oparanya came in at 8 per cent, with smaller percentages shared among Edwin Sifuna, Peter Salasya and Eugene Wamalwa.

The findings highlight a distinction between perceived influence and outright kingpin status, suggesting that while Natembeya commands unmatched visibility and sway, the region remains politically plural, with several leaders retaining loyal constituencies.

Ruto leads presidential preference

The survey also assessed national leadership preferences. President William Ruto emerged as the most preferred presidential aspirant, attracting 25 per cent support among respondents from the region. He was followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 15 per cent and Natembeya himself at 13 per cent, underscoring the governor’s growing national profile.

A significant 25 per cent of respondents said they were undecided, signalling fluid voter attitudes and the potential for realignments as the next election cycle approaches.

Methodology

Infotrak said the poll was conducted on December 29, 2025, using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). The survey targeted registered voters aged 18 years and above across five counties—Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia. A total of 602 respondents were interviewed, exceeding the initial sample target of 600.

The study had a margin of error of ±4 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level, with data analysed using SPSS statistical software. Infotrak stated that the results provide a reliable snapshot of current political sentiment within the Abaluhya community.