Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Photo/Eastleigh Voice
By Newsflash Political Desk
The storm clouds are fast gathering over Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s future in the Kenya Kwanza government.
A series of political developments, coupled with President William Ruto’s shifting alliances and electoral strategies, have raised serious doubts about Kindiki’s long-term political security within the ruling coalition.
A subtle but weighty warning issued by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi on Sunday, May 5, 2025, during a function in Othaya, Nyeri, captured the undercurrents of change within the Kenya Kwanza power structure. Speaking directly to the Mt Kenya electorate, Mudavadi cautioned:
“There are many people, myself included, who are interested in the Deputy President position. If you’re not careful, the mountain will lose it… A bird in hand is better than ten in the bush. Hold on to what you have and take it seriously.”
His message, while carefully worded, struck a chord with political observers. It suggested not only his own ambitions but a wider reconfiguration of the political puzzle ahead of the 2027 general election—and Kindiki, a technocratic figure with limited grassroots mobilization power, appears to be the most vulnerable.
Mt Kenya losing grip
Kindiki ascended to the Deputy President’s role after the controversial impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, the abrasive but popular Mt Kenya politician who was instrumental in delivering the mountain’s vote to Ruto in 2022. But unlike Gachagua, Kindiki has not been able to entrench himself within the region politically. His loyalty to Ruto has not translated into popular support.
“Kindiki has largely remained an administrator rather than a mobilizer. His political footprint in Mt Kenya is thin,” noted political analyst Elias Mugo. “He may have served Ruto’s short-term interests after Gachagua’s ouster, but he is not the person who can deliver the mountain in 2027.”
Read more:Kindiki under fire for ‘snubbing’ Kahiga in his Nyeri tour
President Ruto’s own approval ratings in Mt Kenya are plummeting. A source within the UDA party revealed that before the president’s most recent tour of the region, his popularity stood at 19 percent—and shockingly, it has since dropped to below 15 percent.
Meanwhile, several MPs who supported Gachagua’s impeachment are now reportedly reaching out to him as he prepares to launch a new political party. The signs are clear—Mt Kenya is drifting away, and Kindiki cannot stop it.
Western bloc rising
Ruto appears to be recalibrating his political base towards Western Kenya and Nyanza. Names like Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga are increasingly being mentioned in succession talks. Both represent strategic ethnic blocs—the Luhya and the Luo—that Ruto has been courting aggressively.
“Mudavadi is now front and center in Ruto’s 2027 re-election plans,” said political strategist Wafula Kirwa. “If Ruto feels Mt Kenya is a liability, he’ll drop it. He doesn’t owe them as much anymore. His focus has shifted to vote-rich and unexploited regions like Western.”
Gladys Wanga’s growing closeness to Ruto has also been interpreted as part of a broader campaign to gain a foothold in Luo Nyanza. Ruto is trying to undercut ODM’s grip and win over moderate voters in the region.
In addition, ODM has been pressing Ruto with more political demands since Gachagua’s removal. With Kindiki lacking a solid grassroots base and Mt Kenya leaders in retreat, Ruto may find it easier to replace him with a figure more useful in negotiating power-sharing arrangements.
Succession moves
The upcoming Mbeere North by-election, triggered by the appointment of Geoffrey Ruku to the Cabinet, is being watched closely as a test of Kindiki’s relevance. The constituency is in Mt Kenya East—his supposed stronghold. Should UDA lose the by-election, Kindiki’s already shaky standing will further weaken.
“This by-election will tell us whether Kindiki still has political juice,” said analyst Mercy Wanjiru. “If UDA loses, expect an even louder drumbeat for his replacement.”
Read more:How Mt Kenya tour politically ‘buried’ Ichung’wah, Kindiki & Mbarire
Long-term political strategy is also at play. Sources in Kenya Kwanza indicate that Ruto is already looking past 2027 toward grooming a successor from outside Mt Kenya—most likely from the Western or Nyanza regions. This would be seen as a strategic reward for future loyalty.
“Ruto knows 2032 is not about Mt Kenya anymore,” said Kirwa. “He’s already laying the groundwork for a successor from Western or Nyanza. Kindiki doesn’t feature in that picture.”
As the political terrain continues to shift beneath his feet, Kindiki finds himself in an unenviable position.
Once seen as a trusted legal mind and loyal lieutenant, he is now caught between a restless Mt Kenya base and a president reshuffling the deck ahead of 2027. Unless he can stage a surprise political turnaround, the writing is on the wall—his days in Kenya Kwanza are numbered.
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