Is Jaoko Oburu next Luo kingpin?

By Maina wa Mihiato

It might seem far-fetched to imagine Jaoko Oburu Odinga as the next Luo kingpin, but the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.

Jaoko, the son of Oburu Odinga, is — apart from Raila and Oburu — the only other male from the larger Odinga family who has demonstrated a genuine interest in politics.

Raila has two daughters and one son; while his daughters have shown political ambition, his son has largely stayed out of the political limelight.

The Luo, being a patriarchal community like many others in Kenya, are unlikely to accept a woman as their kingpin. This is where Jaoko steps in. As a male heir and an emerging leader, he fits the traditional mold.

The Odinga family has dominated Luo politics for decades, but with Raila and Oburu now in their early eighties, their political relevance is naturally waning. In another five years, age will inevitably sideline them.

Yet the Odingas are unlikely to simply relinquish the influence they have built over generations. It is expected they will seek to anoint one of their own to succeed Raila. The plan appears to be a long-term strategy, set to mature around 2032. If the Odingas back President Ruto in the 2027 elections, they will expect a return favor — Ruto’s support for Jaoko — five years later, regardless of whether Ruto wins in 2027. The strategy is reminiscent of former President Moi’s delayed but ultimately successful attempt to position Uhuru Kenyatta for leadership.

Building a national profile

Jaoko’s recent appointment as an advisor to President Ruto is no accident. It places him near the heart of political power. Over time, Kenyans will likely see Jaoko increasingly representing the president — brokering peace, delivering official statements, and attending high-profile events — thereby gradually building his national visibility and credibility.

Read more:Is Raila starting to dump Ruto?

As political heavyweights like Raila, Oburu, James Orengo, and Anyang’ Nyong’o fade from the scene, Jaoko could rise to claim leadership of the Luo community. However, his path will not be uncontested.

Jaoko Oburu (left) with President William Ruto. Photo/Kenya Times

He will have to face off with a new generation of Luo leaders, most notably Babu Owino, whose youth, ambition, and populist appeal make him a formidable rival. While other politicians such as Peter Kaluma, Otiende Amollo, and Samuel Atandi could likely be persuaded to support Jaoko under the Odinga family banner, Babu may prove more resistant.

A dynasty without traditional roots

Interestingly, while talk of a “kingpin” suggests a royal succession, Luo history does not traditionally support the concept of dynastic rule. From what little historical record is available, the Luo were organized through clan-based leadership rather than centralized royal families. It is worth asking: how did the Luo organize their society in the 1800s, long before the Odingas emerged as political giants?

Ultimately, whether Jaoko Oburu Odinga becomes the next Luo kingpin will depend not just on strategic alliances and family legacy, but on his own political skill, his ability to command respect, and his capacity to connect with an evolving, younger electorate.