How Raila Odinga controls Ruto's 2027 presidential bid

By Wanderi Kamau

The political landscape in Kenya has always been shaped by the unpredictability and strategic maneuvering of Raila Odinga.

As President William Ruto prepares for the 2027 general elections, former Mosop MP Vincent Tuwei has made a bold assertion: Raila holds the key to Ruto’s fate.

Tuwei, a former close ally of the late President Daniel Moi, recently claimed that “Raila can change any hour, and you will be left with no choice.” His statement is a warning to Ruto, who has aligned himself with Odinga in a precarious political pact. The question now is whether this alliance will last or whether Raila will bolt out, leaving Ruto politically vulnerable.

Raila’s history of political maneuvering

Kenyan history is littered with instances of Raila Odinga shifting alliances to gain political leverage. Tuwei recalls how Moi sent him, along with Oscar and the late Jimmy Choge, to deliver money to Raila and his MPs in Bondo following their 1997 deal. However, Raila later turned against Moi.

Former Ford-People leader the late Simeon Nyachae. Photo/The Standard

Similarly, in the lead-up to the 2002 elections, Raila signed a political pact with the late Simeon Nyachae to form the Ford People Rainbow Coalition. But on the same day, he abandoned it and endorsed Mwai Kibaki with the famous “Kibaki Tosha” declaration.

These past betrayals raise concerns about his current deal with Ruto. If Raila does not see his interests served, he could easily shift allegiance and support someone else, such as Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang’i. This would be disastrous for Ruto, whose popularity is already dwindling.

Ruto’s political mistakes and misadvisors

Ruto’s biggest blunder was orchestrating the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua without a concrete political strategy. This move created cracks within his Kenya Kwanza coalition, leading to speculation about further divisions. Additionally, his close allies have been accused of misadvising him, failing to account for the political repercussions of alienating key figures within his camp.

Former Mosop MP Vincent Tuwei. Phhoto/Newsflash

Political analyst Herman Manyora has warned that Raila has a unique ability to reinvent himself and capitalize on political discontent. He listens to the ground and can shift direction to align with public sentiment. If discontent continues to rise within the country, Raila might take advantage of it to rally opposition against Ruto.

Raila’s influence in his strongholds

While Raila and Ruto’s alliance was initially seen as a political masterstroke, discontent is growing in Raila’s strongholds. There are fears of voter apathy in regions such as Nyanza, Western, and the Coast due to dissatisfaction with the unity between the two leaders. If these regions experience low voter turnout, it will significantly dent Ruto’s re-election bid.

Siaya Governor James Orengo. Photo/Kenya’s Parliament

Furthermore, an alternative political force could emerge from Nyanza, led by younger leaders such as Embakasi East MP Babu Owino or Siaya Governor James Orengo. The dissatisfaction with Raila’s alliance with Ruto could push voters towards a new political movement that directly opposes the government. This would deny Ruto the numbers he needs from Raila’s base, especially since he has already lost support in Mount Kenya.

Also read: Sifuna: The unlikely figure at Ruto, Raila pact signing

Additionally, the Kalonzo factor in Ukambani remains a thorn in Ruto’s side. If Raila shifts support to Kalonzo, it could significantly weaken Ruto’s vote tally in 2027.

Internal Divisions in ODM and Kenya Kwanza

Another challenge for Ruto is the internal rifts within both ODM and Kenya Kwanza. ODM is already showing signs of division, with two factions emerging. The pro-Ruto camp includes George Aladwa, Peter Kaluma, and Junet Mohamed, while the anti-Ruto camp is led by James Orengo, Babu Owino, and Edwin Sifuna. If this rift widens, it could lead to a split within ODM, weakening its influence but also making Raila’s support unpredictable.

On the other hand, Kenya Kwanza is also at risk of factional breakups. Key leaders such as Kithure Kindiki, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetang’ula might feel sidelined due to Raila’s entry into Ruto’s political fold. If they perceive their political importance as being watered down, they could bolt out of Kenya Kwanza, fracturing Ruto’s coalition and diminishing his chances of re-election.

The uncertain future of Raila-Ruto pact

The ultimate question remains: will Raila and Ruto’s interests align until 2027? Raila’s past actions indicate that he is not one to stay in an alliance that does not serve his ambitions. If he does not see political or economic benefits from his pact with Ruto, he could easily abandon ship.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Photo/Newsflash

Moreover, with an alternative force potentially rising from his backyard and growing frustrations within Kenya Kwanza, Raila has multiple options to explore before the next election. If voter apathy continues to rise, it will significantly hurt Ruto’s numbers, making re-election an uphill battle.

Also read: Wanjigi to Azimio MPs: Use your strength to impeach Ruto

Outlook

Raila Odinga remains one of the most unpredictable and influential figures in Kenyan politics. His ability to realign, reinvent, and redirect political discourse keeps him at the center of the country’s political chessboard.

For Ruto, the 2027 election remains a delicate balancing act. If he cannot manage internal rifts within Kenya Kwanza and maintain goodwill within his alliance with Raila, he might find himself politically isolated.

As Vincent Tuwei warned, “The Raila you think you know is the Raila I know more than anyone.” If history is anything to go by, Ruto should be wary, as Raila could change direction at any moment, leaving him politically stranded.