Will Orengo & Sifuna survive ODM onslaught?

By Wanderi Kamau

The political landscape within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is shifting rapidly, as internal divisions over the party’s posture toward President William Ruto’s government threaten to boil over.

The latest flashpoint came during the burial of Raila Odinga’s long-serving aide, George Oduor, where Siaya Governor James Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna took the opportunity to publicly criticize the Ruto administration — remarks that have drawn sharp reactions, not just from Ruto himself but from within ODM as well.

While Orengo was characteristically blunt in his attack, warning that Kenya was headed down a dangerous path if leaders did not start speaking the truth, Sifuna’s tone began diplomatically but quickly turned into a biting rebuke of the President.

“Even me, at times I wonder how you sleep,” Sifuna said, before warning Ruto to “read the riot act” to his underperforming officials. This was in reference to a recent incident in Nakuru where school children were reportedly teargassed by police — a PR disaster that has fed into broader public dissatisfaction.

President Ruto responded swiftly and with a touch of menace. “Sifuna, when you speak about me, know that I am a founding member of ODM. Tread carefully,” he warned. “If you push me too far, I will call a meeting of the founding members. If we have that meeting, we can discipline you.”

The response from Ruto marked more than just political banter — it was a veiled threat meant to shake the foundations of ODM’s internal unity. And it seems to have worked.

On Friday, ODM leader Raila Odinga issued a carefully worded statement through his spokesman, Dennis Onyango, urging calm and civility within the party. The timing and tone of the message have widely been interpreted as a cautionary call to party stalwarts like Orengo and Sifuna, who are increasingly seen as outliers in the context of ODM’s quiet but unmistakable alignment with the Kenya Kwanza regime under the “broad-based government” framework.

Are Orengo and Sifuna safe?

The big question now is whether the two vocal ODM leaders can survive what appears to be an escalating onslaught from within their own ranks. Several factors will determine their political fate:

Raila’s 2027 gameplan

According to political analyst Charles Were, “If Orengo and Sifuna are speaking with Raila’s tacit blessing — testing the waters, so to speak — then they will survive. But if they are acting unilaterally, they risk being isolated.”

ODM leader Raila Odinga. Photo/The Standard

Raila’s silence in the face of growing criticism of the broad-based government has left his true intentions ambiguous. Analysts suggest he is playing a long game, possibly positioning himself or his allies for a broader coalition ahead of 2027. If Sifuna and Orengo are aligned with this vision, their future is safe. If not, they are expendable.

Broad-based government vs public sentiment

Public opinion, especially in ODM’s traditional bases of Nyanza, Western, and Coast, is still largely skeptical of Ruto. Orengo and Sifuna’s recent remarks resonate with this base, and their popularity on the ground may act as a buffer against any internal censure.

Political commentator Rose Atieno argues, “In the court of public opinion, Sifuna and Orengo are winning. Removing them or sidelining them could backfire spectacularly, turning them into political martyrs and weakening ODM’s grip on its core support.”

Fear of losing public support

Insiders within ODM who spoke to Newsflash say the party is treading carefully. “There is genuine fear that punishing Orengo and Sifuna could alienate a key segment of the party’s base,” a source said. “It’s a delicate moment. Raila can’t afford to look like he’s muzzling dissent — not now.”

Personal ties and trust

Orengo and Sifuna are not peripheral figures. Both have long-standing relationships with Odinga and have played pivotal roles in ODM’s recent political moves. Raila’s reluctance to rebuke them outright may stem from trust and loyalty as much as strategy.

“Raila is not just a political tactician; he is loyal to a fault,” says political analyst David Makali. “It’s possible he sees Orengo and Sifuna as essential to his long-term strategy, especially as he negotiates the complex dynamics of his agreement with Ruto.”

Fear of a party split

Perhaps the most potent reason Orengo and Sifuna might survive is the looming specter of a party split. ODM has seen its share of internal rifts before — from the fallout with Ababu Namwamba to defections around the 2017 elections — and it knows the cost.

“If the two are pushed too far, they could easily walk away with a significant portion of the party’s support, especially from urban youth and reformist-minded constituencies,” warns Makali. “That could embolden rival formations or even force a coalition realignment ahead of 2027.”

Readd more:Raila’s hidden hand in Sifuna Ruto attack

Indeed, ODM cannot afford to hemorrhage support just as it enters what will likely be a tumultuous electoral cycle.

According to political analysts, the fate of Orengo and Sifuna in ODM remains uncertain, but several dynamics favor their survival.

“They are currently riding a wave of public support, their criticism of Ruto aligns with grassroots frustrations, and punishing them could backfire politically. Most crucially, Raila Odinga himself may be unwilling to risk a party split or appear as though he is cracking down on internal democracy,” says political analyst Wambiji Makokha.