Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i. Photo/KNA
By Wanderi Kamau
The unexpected return of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i to Kenya has sparked political ripples across the country, igniting conversations about a possible 2027 presidential bid.
Though he has not publicly declared his intentions, his presence and the speculation surrounding it are reshaping political alignments and creating unease in certain power circles, especially within President William Ruto’s camp.
The soft-spoken but firm technocrat, who earned both admiration and criticism during his tenure in the powerful Interior docket under President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration, is now being touted as a potential presidential contender.
Key political figures such as Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni and Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka have openly rallied behind Matiang’i, casting him as the man who could unify a fragmented opposition and mount a formidable challenge to Ruto’s incumbency.
“Fred Matiang’i represents the kind of leadership this country desperately needs — decisive, incorruptible, and development-focused,” says Kioni. “His silence should not be mistaken for indecision. He is weighing his options wisely.”
But is the “Matiang’i Effect” genuine political momentum or just another episode of short-lived political excitement, akin to the “Martha Karua Wave” or the ambitious but ultimately unsuccessful presidential runs by Charity Ngilu and Peter Kenneth?
A nation abuzz: Signals of a possible bid
Despite Matiang’i’s conspicuous silence on the matter, the noise around his potential candidature has grown louder. The fact that both the Jubilee Party and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) have expressed support — and that retired President Uhuru Kenyatta is said to be backing him — has added weight to the speculation.
Dr Alex Mwangi, a political scientist at the University of Nairobi, notes, “Kenya’s political environment thrives on symbols and signals. Matiang’i’s return, the surrogates speaking for him, and the backing from Uhuru point to a calculated political re-entry.”
According to insiders, Ruto’s camp has been “panic-stricken” by Matiang’i’s resurfacing, viewing it as a potential threat to their dominance, especially if the opposition coalesces behind a single candidate.
But therein lies the first dilemma: Can the opposition rally around a single candidate?
Opposition unity and the Kalonzo factor
One of the biggest obstacles to Matiang’i’s potential candidacy is the crowded field within the opposition itself. Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has made it clear that he will be on the ballot in 2027. Having been Raila Odinga’s running mate in 2013 and 2017 and a key player in the Azimio la Umoja coalition in 2022, Kalonzo believes his time has come.
Read more:Matiang’i to kick off 2027 presidential bid preparations
“If the opposition fails to unite, it will be 2022 all over again — a split vote that hands Ruto an easy win,” warns Dr Roselyn Mutua, a political commentator. “And with strong personalities like Kalonzo and Martha Karua unwilling to step aside, Matiang’i’s chances could be undermined before his campaign even starts.”
A political greenhorn
Despite his impressive civil service record, Matiang’i has never contested a political seat. He is entering a terrain filled with political gladiators — most notably President William Ruto, a seasoned operator who ascended to the presidency by outmaneuvering not just opposition heavyweights but also his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta.
“Matiang’i might have been powerful within government, but politics is a different ballgame altogether,” says Prof. Gitile Naituli, a governance expert. “He will need to prove he can inspire crowds, survive smear campaigns, and build grassroots networks.”
Managing allies and competing interests
Another challenge is Matiang’i’s political baggage. While it may seem advantageous to have experienced figures like Uhuru, Kalonzo, Karua, and Wamalwa in his corner, their presence might also deny him the political freshness many Kenyans are craving.
Read more:Simba Arati: Torn in between Raila and Matiang’i
“To the average voter, Matiang’i looks like the continuation of the old order,” says Nairobi-based political analyst Philip Mbithi. “The youth, in particular, are skeptical. They remember the Jubilee years as a period of economic hardship.”
Moreover, these seasoned allies will inevitably demand political compensation should Matiang’i win — Cabinet positions, appointments, and influence. Balancing such competing interests while maintaining a coherent campaign message will be a tightrope walk.
The Maraga factor and Kisii politics
In his Gusii backyard, Matiang’i also faces stiff competition. Former Chief Justice David Maraga has declared that he will vie for the presidency in 2027 and is unlikely to step down for anyone — even a fellow son of Kisii.
“To command the Kisii vote, Matiang’i will have to negotiate with Maraga,” says Senator Onyonka. “Otherwise, the vote will split, and both will lose relevance nationally.”
Serious bid or just hype?
At this juncture, it’s hard to say definitively whether Matiang’i’s political ambitions are serious or just speculative excitement. His silence is strategic, but time is ticking. If he is to be taken seriously, he must soon shed the image of a reluctant contender and begin building the structures necessary for a national campaign.
As Dr Mutua aptly puts it, “Kenya’s political landscape is full of buzz-makers who never make it to the ballot. If Matiang’i wants to avoid that fate, he must declare his intentions, unite the opposition, and step into the arena as a candidate — not a shadow of a past regime.”
