Kisii governor Simba Arati. Photo/Handout
By Wanderi Kamau
Kisii Governor Simba Arati finds himself at a political crossroads as the 2027 presidential race gains momentum.
The entry of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i into the race has complicated Arati’s political calculations, leaving him with a tough decision: remain loyal to his long-time political mentor, Raila Odinga, or align himself with Matiang’i, who is quickly gaining traction in Kisii.
The rise of Matiang’i in Kisii politics
In recent months, Matiang’i’s political bid has received significant backing from the larger Kisii community.
Leaders from South Mugirango have openly declared their support for him, citing his exemplary performance in Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration.
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, a close ally of Matiang’i, recently stated, “As the Kisii community, we are going to rally behind Fred Okeng’o Matiang’i in 2027.”
Read more: Two parties fronted for Matiang’i 2027 presidential bid
Onyonka further emphasized that they intend to form a political party and seek alliances with other national leaders. “We are going to form a political party and talk to other leaders like Kalonzo, Gachagua, Uhuru… we will even talk to Raila,” he added.
These developments signal a strong political wave that could shift Kisii’s traditional support from Raila Odinga to one of their own, a prospect that places Arati in a precarious position.
Raila’s dismissal of Matiang’i’s bid
Despite Matiang’i’s growing influence, Raila Odinga has downplayed his presidential ambitions. While in Kisii recently, Raila remarked, “Matiang’i has not announced he will run for the presidency,” dismissing discussions on the matter.
This statement did not sit well with many Kisii leaders and professionals who had hoped Raila would support Matiang’i’s bid. Insiders have told Newsflash that there was an expectation within the Kisii community that Raila would rally behind Matiang’i in 2027. Instead, his remarks and perceived alignment with President William Ruto have left many disappointed.
The Simba Arati dilemma
As a first-term governor, Arati’s primary political interest is retaining his gubernatorial seat in 2027. However, his decision on whom to support in the presidential race could make or break his re-election prospects. With the majority of the Kisii electorate leaning towards Matiang’i, Arati is under immense pressure to align himself with this movement.
Political analysts argue that Arati’s survival depends on his ability to adapt to the shifting political landscape. “For Arati to survive, he will be forced to sail by the Matiang’i wave,” James Hamisi, a political analyst noted. If he chooses to remain in Raila’s ODM camp and Raila does not support Matiang’i, Arati risks alienating himself from the dominant political force in Gusii.
Read more: EXCLUSIVE: Inside Uhuru-Matiang’i 2027 secret talks
Adding to his dilemma, Jubilee and UPA political parties have already endorsed Matiang’i as their preferred presidential candidate for 2027. If Arati fails to align with Matiang’i, the possibility of facing a well-funded rival candidate in the Kisii gubernatorial race is high.
The ghost of Raila’s betrayal in 2002
Raila Odinga’s political history in Kisii adds another layer to Arati’s predicament. In 2002, Raila was accused of betraying veteran Kisii leader Simeon Nyachae after initially working with him. This history of perceived betrayal could resurface if Raila fails to support Matiang’i, further strengthening Matiang’i’s political case in Kisii.
“If Raila fails to support Matiang’i, the entire Kisii community will continue supporting him,” Hamisi observed. This means that leaders like Arati will have no choice but to align with the prevailing political mood in the region or risk losing their influence.
Growing support for Matiang’i among professionals
Beyond political figures, professionals, opinion leaders, and church leaders in Kisii have begun grassroots initiatives to push the community to rally behind Matiang’i. This movement is gaining traction, further cornering Arati into making a critical political decision.
Interestingly, even politicians like Majority Whip Sylvanus Osoro, known for his aggressive political stance, have toned down their rhetoric, an indication that the political terrain in Kisii is shifting.
What lies ahead for Simba Arati?
Arati’s political future hangs in the balance. If he decides to back Raila and ODM, he risks facing resistance from Kisii voters who are gravitating towards Matiang’i. On the other hand, if he supports Matiang’i, he could jeopardize his relationship with Raila, who played a crucial role in his rise to power.
According to Hamisi, if Matiang’i consolidates his influence and wins the backing of national political heavyweights like Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta, his bid will gain significant traction.
Read more: Raila hecked in Kisii
“In such a scenario, Arati’s political survival will depend on his ability to read the prevailing winds and align accordingly,” he told Newsflash.
As 2027 approaches, the choices Simba Arati makes in the coming months will shape not only his political career but also the future of Kisii politics. Whether he remains loyal to Raila or embraces the Matiang’i wave, one thing is clear: he cannot afford to be caught on the wrong side of history.
