Why Raila has entered into Ruto’s political trap

By Wanderi Kamau

The recent 10-point ‘working agreement’ between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga has sparked intense debate, with analysts arguing that Raila has walked into a well-laid political trap.

The agreement, which builds on the recommendations of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, appears to neutralize Raila’s long-standing demands while bolstering Ruto’s political positioning ahead of the 2027 elections.

The death of the 2022 election audit push

One of Raila’s key demands since the last general election has been an audit of the 2022 presidential election results. The NADCO report initially proposed this, offering hope for transparency in Kenya’s electoral process. However, with Raila now aligned with Ruto, the likelihood of an audit has diminished.

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Political analyst Herman Manyora argues, “Raila’s biggest bargaining chip was the election audit. By joining hands with Ruto, he has essentially surrendered that fight. The push for transparency in our electoral system is now as good as dead.”

This shift benefits Ruto, as any investigations into the credibility of the last election could have raised questions about his legitimacy.

By bringing Raila closer, Ruto has effectively silenced this demand, eliminating a potential political headache.

The illusion of constitutional amendments

The NADCO report also proposed the creation of the Office of the Official Opposition Leader and the Prime Minister’s position—two roles that Raila and his allies have advocated for.

However, implementing these proposals requires a constitutional referendum, something Ruto is unlikely to support given the growing public dissatisfaction with his administration.

Senior counsel and political commentator Ahmednasir Abdullahi notes: “Ruto will never allow a referendum now. He remembers what happened to Mwai Kibaki in 2005. A referendum could expose his weaknesses and mobilize opposition against him.”

Without a referendum, these proposed changes remain theoretical, leading to a potential fallout between Ruto and Raila when implementation stalls.

Raila’s commitment to devolution

Another contentious issue is the recommendation to increase county allocations from 15% to 20%. Raila, a longtime champion of devolution, has always pushed for more funds to be allocated to counties. Ruto, on the other hand, opposed the 2010 Constitution, which created the devolved system, and prefers centralized control of resources.

A senior ODM legislator, speaking anonymously, noted, “Raila has always been the face of devolution. Ruto does not believe in it. If this proposal stalls, it will not be Ruto who takes the blame—it will be Raila.”

This mismatch in ideology sets the stage for potential disappointment and frustration for Raila and his supporters.

Gachagua’s allies targeted

The agreement also promises a balanced approach to government appointments, a move seen as targeting allies of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. This proposal appears to be a political maneuver designed to weaken Gachagua’s influence within Kenya Kwanza. A UDA insider suggested, “This is just a smokescreen. The reality is that Ruto wants to sideline Gachagua’s Mt Kenya bloc and consolidate power around himself.”

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If these appointments do not materialize, Raila could again be blamed for legitimizing a flawed process.

The futility of the anti-corruption agenda

Fighting corruption is another key pillar of the agreement, but many remain skeptical about its feasibility under Ruto’s presidency.

Reports from the Auditor General and the Controller of Budget have flagged corruption in government agencies, yet no significant action has been taken. Kenya Kwanza legislators have even initiated efforts to remove these oversight officials from office.

Political analyst Martin Andati argues, “You cannot fight corruption when those in power are the main beneficiaries. This agreement’s promise to tackle corruption is purely cosmetic.”

Failed projects like the Social Health Authority (SHA) and Adani deals further highlight concerns about government integrity. If the fight against corruption falters, Raila will bear the brunt of the blame for legitimizing Ruto’s administration.

Who takes the blame?

In the event that these promises fail, Raila will be the primary scapegoat. His entry into an agreement with Ruto means that any failures will be attributed to his decision to collaborate rather than continue in opposition.

A vocal Azimio supporter lamented, “If things go south, Raila will be blamed for betraying the opposition cause. He will be seen as the one who helped Ruto consolidate power instead of fighting for Kenyans.”

As Ruto strengthens his grip on power, Raila risks being seen as complicit in a process that may ultimately undermine his own political legacy. The real test will come when promises made in this agreement fail to materialize, leaving Raila to carry the weight of disappointment from his supporters.