UDA’s gamble to revive lost support in Mt Kenya

By Wanderi Kamau

The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has embarked on a renewed campaign to reclaim its once-solid support base in the Mt Kenya region, amid growing political hostility and shifting loyalties ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The party’s popularity in the vote-rich region has significantly waned since the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October 2024, a development that continues to cast a long shadow over President William Ruto’s relationship with Mt Kenya voters.

Most residents in the region accuse President Ruto of orchestrating Gachagua’s impeachment, despite having vigorously campaigned for him as his running mate during the 2022 general elections.

The sense of betrayal has since fuelled widespread resentment, weakening UDA’s grassroots structures and opening political space for rival outfits, particularly Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), which is aggressively courting Mt Kenya voters.

By-election victory offers fresh hope

Despite the hostility, UDA recently received a morale boost following its narrow victory in the Mbeere North by-election. The party’s candidate, Leo Wamuthende, won the contest after garnering 15,802 votes, narrowly edging out Democratic Party candidate Newton Kariuki, popularly known as Karish, who secured 15,308 votes while running as the United Opposition’s candidate.

Nyandarua Woman Representative Faith Gitau addresses those who attended the UDA meeting at Kipipiri, Nyandarua, on December 19. Photo/Handout

The win has injected renewed optimism within UDA ranks, with party strategists viewing it as proof that the outfit still commands pockets of support in the region. Leaders allied to President Ruto argue that, with sustained engagement and mobilisation, UDA could slowly rebuild trust among disillusioned voters. However, political observers caution that the by-election outcome, though symbolic, may not necessarily reflect broader regional sentiment.

Grassroots engagements and public scepticism

In the wake of the Mbeere North victory, several MPs close to President Ruto have intensified grassroots engagements across Mt Kenya, holding rallies and consultative forums with wananchi. Among those leading the charge are Nyandarua Woman Representative Faith Gitau, Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi, his Othaya counterpart Wambugu Wainaina among others.

Ms Gitau last week held a UDA rally at the Manunga Catholic Church grounds in Kipipiri constituency, which attracted about 2,000 people. The gathering was viewed by party insiders as a turning point in a county that has largely resisted UDA since Gachagua’s impeachment. Several members of her political team openly endorsed her bid, signalling what was portrayed as strong local backing and renewed confidence in the ruling party.

Last Saturday, Mr Wamumbi mobilised nearly 15,000 people in Karatina to attend a UDA grassroots meeting in Mathira constituency, the political backyard of Gachagua. Mr Wainaina, on his part, led a well-attended meeting in Othaya, further underscoring the party’s efforts to reassert its presence across the region.

Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi (in blue shirt) addresses UDA supporters at Karatina, Mathira. Photo/Eric Wamumbi/Facebook

However, the large turnouts have sent mixed signals about UDA’s true standing. Some attendees openly admit that their participation is driven more by cash incentives than genuine political support. “We are just going for monetary handouts. Nothing else. Our hearts are still with Gachagua,” said Jane Waithera, one of the women who attended Mr Wamumbi’s meeting in Karatina. Such sentiments highlight the fragile and transactional nature of UDA’s current engagements in the region.

Grassroots polls loom as critical test

UDA’s planned grassroots elections in the region are now shaping up as a major popularity test, with the potential to trigger further political fallout ahead of the 2027 General Election. The party is scheduled to conduct the polls on January 10, 2026, at a time when President Ruto has lost several key allies in the region.

The outcome of the exercise is expected to serve as a barometer of its influence in a region that played a decisive role in propelling Dr Ruto to power in 2022. Voter turnout and the number of aspirants seeking party leadership positions will be closely watched, amid growing perceptions that Mt Kenya has become increasingly hostile to the ruling party. Several of the President’s former allies have since declared allegiance to Mr Gachagua, who is positioning DCP as the dominant political vehicle in the region.

In a move that has raised eyebrows, UDA extended the registration period for aspirants seeking various party positions. “The National Elections Board of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) hereby issues this formal notice to all stakeholders, party members and aspiring candidates regarding the extension of the Phase III grassroots registration deadline,” said UDA National Elections Board chairperson Anthony Mwaura.

A section of the crowd which turned up to receive Christmas gifts from Othaya MP Wambugu Wainaina on December 23, 2025. Photo/Handout

He announced that the deadline, initially set for December 23, 2025, had been extended to December 31 at 11.59pm, citing the Christmas holiday as the reason. However, it later emerged that the party had struggled to attract sufficient aspirants by the original deadline.

Electoral regions

The polling centre-based elections will be held across Mt Kenya counties, including Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Nyeri and Tharaka-Nithi. In the Rift Valley, the exercise will cover Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Samburu counties, while Kakamega and Vihiga will represent Western Kenya.

Several UDA leaders perceived to have fallen out with President Ruto — and who could be on their way out of the party — include Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, Nyandarua Senator John Methu, Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa, Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru (Mejja Donk), Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, Kirinyaga Senator James Murango and Laikipia Senator John Kinyua.

Political analyst George Wambua argues that UDA should not be written off just yet. “After the Mbeere North victory, it is not easy to dismiss UDA as a ‘dead’ party in the region. While the dominant parties are DCP and Jubilee, UDA still has its supporters,” he said.