Raila Odinga's Africa Union Commission (AUC) campaign poster. Photo/Newsflash
By Wanderi Kamau
A keen and independent analysis by Newsflash has revealed why it might be a tall order for Kenya’s candidate for the Africa Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship position, Raila Odinga, to win the seat.
The analysis involves multiple conversations with geopolitical experts as well as studying the past voting patterns and dynamics in past elections.
Tomorrow, Saturday, 15 February, 2025, Raila, 80, will be contesting for the position alongside two other contenders – Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.
Cumulatively, out of 55 African states, only 49 will participate as six have been barred for having military coups.
On Thursday, 13 February, 2025, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), directed all her 16 member states to vote for Madagascar’s Randriamandrato.
The 16 countries are: Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
According to international relations scholar Peter Kagwanja, SADC’s declaration was a big blow to Raila, who has been banking on the support of some Kenya allies in the Southern region such as Zambia, Malawi and South Africa for his bid.
“With SADC’s directive, Raila and Youssouf are left to scramble the remaining 33 votes,” Prof Kagwanja told Newsflash.
He says that Kenya is already disadvantaged because countries such as DRC Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia and Burundi will not vote for Raila.
“Kenya has tainted her image from perceived meddling in the ongoing DRC crisis. Indeed, DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi has a personal beef with Kenya. Kenya was supposed to host the recent meeting to discuss the crisis, but it was held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. This is because Kenya is seen as openly partisan,” he says.
For Ethiopia, Kagwanja says that the country transports over 95 percent of her imports through Djibouti, therefore it can’t risk supporting a ‘distant neighbour’.
He terms Djibouti as Ethiopia’s “economic lifeline”.
“Kenya is in bad books with Burundi, as Ruto has been appearing to support Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, especially in the Eastern DRC fights. Rwanda and Burundi have been long-term arch-rivals,” he says.
Kenya has also been at loggerheads with Somalia for recognising Somaliland as an independent region. Somaliland is a breakaway region from the larger Somalia.
In West Africa, Raila is also greatly disadvantaged, especially among the Francophone states due to Ruto’s closeness with France President Emmanuel Macron.
John Wekesa, an expert on African politics, says that most Francophone states in West Africa have been trying to disengage themselves from the French’s ‘Big Man Syndrome.’
“The conversations that Ruto has been having with Macron puts Raila at great odds with most Francophone countries. In fact, out of about 15 members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), only Nigeria and Ghana are fully English speaking (Anglophone),” Wekesa told Newsflash.
He says that the countries might support Youssouf, who, besides being a Muslim, is a fluent French speaker.
In addition, he says that at 80 years, Raila’s age is also disadvantageous. Youssouf is 59 while Randriamandrato is 65 years old.
“There is a wave of change blowing across Africa, where younger presidents like Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré are taking power. Given that the median age of African presidents is 53 years, it might be difficult for most presidents to vote for Raila. Essentially, the AUC chairmanship job is for a 50-year-old person,” he told Newsflash.
He says that the position has also favoured former Foreign Affairs Ministers rather than former Presidents or Prime Ministers.
“By favouring former Foreign Affairs ministers, most presidents want someone who will not overrule them,” he says.
To be declared the winner, a candidate needs to get at least 33 votes.
