Only a third of Kenyans expect 2026 to be better than 2025-Survey

By Newsflash Reporter

Only about a third of Kenyans believe the year 2026 will be better than 2025, reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent cost-of-living pressures, according to an Infotrak survey released on Tuesday, December 30, 2025.

The nationwide End of Year Poll shows that 29 per cent of respondents expect 2026 to be better than 2025, while 25 per cent believe economic conditions will remain the same. However, 16 per cent are pessimistic, saying the economy will worsen next year, and a significant 30 per cent remain unsure, underscoring widespread uncertainty about Kenya’s economic direction.

The findings emerge against a backdrop of high unemployment, elevated food prices and mounting household financial strain, which continue to shape public sentiment.

Why some Kenyans are optimistic

Among the nearly one-third who believe 2026 will be better, optimism is driven largely by expectations of macroeconomic improvement and personal financial recovery. According to the survey, 35 per cent of optimists believe the general economy will improve, citing hopes of stabilising prices, better fiscal management and easing pressure on households

Another 22 per cent expect their personal finances to improve, driven by prospects of higher income, improved business performance or reduced debt burdens.

Employment prospects also play a role, with 18 per cent saying they anticipate securing a job or a better-paying position, while 17 per cent expect their businesses to expand and grow next year.

Peace and political stability remain a critical pillar of optimism. About 21 per cent of hopeful respondents cited the continuation of national peace as a key reason for believing 2026 will be better, reflecting the strong link between stability and economic confidence in Kenya.

Drivers of pessimism

In contrast, the 16 per cent who believe the economy will worsen point to deepening economic challenges. Nearly half of pessimists—49 per cent—say they expect the economy to decline further, citing rising taxes, persistent inflation and weak job creation.

Personal financial anxiety is also pronounced. About 34 per cent of pessimistic respondents fear their household finances will deteriorate, while 16 per cent believe their businesses will suffer in the coming year.

Another 15 per cent worry about job losses or an inability to find work, reflecting concerns over unemployment and retrenchments.

Environmental factors compound these fears in some regions. Although only 6 per cent nationally cited drought as a concern, the survey notes that in North Eastern Kenya, 67 per cent of pessimistic respondents fear an imminent drought, highlighting stark regional disparities in economic vulnerability.

Overall, the Infotrak survey paints a picture of a country caught between hope and hardship. While a third of Kenyans see potential for recovery in 2026, a sizeable proportion either expect deterioration or remain unsure, signalling that economic confidence remains fragile as households grapple with unemployment, high prices and fiscal pressures