ODM popularity surges as Gachagua’s DCP support declines-TIFA

By Newsflash Reporter

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has emerged as the most popular political party in Kenya in a new survey released by TIFA research firm on Tuesday, December 23.

ODM’s support has climbed to 20%, up from 13% in August, overtaking the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which holds 16%.

The survey also reveals a notable decline in support for the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), which has dropped from 10% to 6%. Analysts suggest that internal debates within ODM following the passing of Raila Odinga may influence how many of its supporters eventually align in the 2027 general elections. While ODM appears dominant, not all of its backing can automatically be assumed as support for President William Ruto.

Coalitions and shifting party damics

Coalitions play a critical role in this political landscape. The Azimio coalition enjoys stronger support than Kenya Kwanza (6% vs. 2%), reflecting the ongoing influence of Raila’s political legacy. Together with the major parties under the broad-based governance (BBG) framework, these political formations account for nearly 44% of the adult population. However, analysts caution that Azimio followers are not necessarily all close to ODM, making voter behavior in 2027 potentially unpredictable.

Other parties are also shifting. Jubilee’s support has surged from 3% to 11%, possibly driven by former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s public endorsement of former CS Fred Matiangi as Deputy Party Leader. Wiper Democratic Movement and other minor parties hold around 6% collectively.

The survey additionally shows a decrease in the proportion of voters identifying with no party (from 31% to 22%) and those “undecided” (from 10% to 6%). Observers attribute this shift to heightened political activity surrounding late November by-elections and the anticipation of 2027 contests.

Overall, ODM’s rise to 20% and DCP’s decline from 10% to 6% underline a changing political terrain in Kenya, where major parties and coalitions are consolidating support while smaller formations struggle to maintain relevance. As the 2027 elections approach, the evolving alignments within and across parties will be critical in determining the next political order.