Muturi: Why Ruto has dug his political grave in Mt Kenya

By Wanderi Kamau

President William Ruto’s decision to fire former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi has sparked political tremors in the Mt Kenya region.

The move not only risks alienating a key voting bloc but also sets the stage for a high-stakes political battle that could undermine Ruto’s dominance in the region.

Political background

Muturi, a former Speaker of the National Assembly and a respected figure in Mt Kenya East, has been a key ally of Ruto.

His dismissal comes at a time when the region is already experiencing political turbulence, particularly following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Despite Ruto’s efforts to consolidate power, Gachagua still commands a strong political base among the Ameru, Aembu, Mbeere, and Watharaka communities.

The appointment of Kindiki Kithure as Deputy President was expected to solidify Ruto’s grip on the region, but Kindiki has yet to fully establish his influence.

His long-awaited homecoming event, meant to celebrate his appointment, has been repeatedly delayed due to fears that the region remains loyal to Gachagua.

Political analyst Kiarie Wangechi notes, “The political landscape in Mt. Kenya East is complex. Despite Kindiki’s rise to power, many in the region still feel a stronger connection to Gachagua and Muturi, which could pose a challenge for Ruto.”

Geoffrey Ruku’s appointment and its consequences

By appointing Ruku, the Member of Parliament for Mbeere North, to replace Muturi, Ruto has triggered a by-election in the constituency. While Ruku has been a loyal supporter of the president, his elevation creates an opportunity for political opponents to mount a serious challenge.

Political observers believe this by-election could serve as a referendum on Ruto’s leadership in Mt Kenya East. A strong candidate backed by Gachagua and Muturi could deal a significant blow to Ruto’s standing in the region.

Political analyst Leonard Kivuva remarks, “By creating a vacancy in Mbeere North, Ruto has opened the door for a political showdown. If an opposition candidate wins, it will be seen as a direct rejection of Ruto’s leadership in the region.”

Gachagua’s political maneuvers

Gachagua remains a formidable force in Mt Kenya politics. He has already announced plans to launch a new political party in May, which could serve as an alternative power base for those disillusioned with Ruto’s leadership.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Photo/File

Moreover, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) selection panel has indicated that the commission will be fully constituted by the end of April, clearing the way for the Mbeere North by-election. Political insiders suggest that Gachagua and Muturi could join forces to front a strong candidate against Ruto’s choice.

Should a Gachagua-Muturi-backed candidate win, it would send a clear message that Ruto’s influence in the region is waning. This scenario mirrors past by-elections that have shaped Kenya’s political landscape.

Historical precedents

By-election results have historically played a significant role in determining political fortunes in Kenya.

In 2021, John Njuguna Wanjiku’s victory in the Kiambaa by-election under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) was seen as a major blow to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence, solidifying Ruto’s control over Mt. Kenya ahead of the 2022 elections.
In 2015, Ferdinand Waititu’s election as the MP for Kabete under the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) helped popularize the party in Mt.Kenya, making it the dominant force in the 2017 general elections.

If the Mbeere North by-election follows a similar trajectory, it could significantly alter Mt Kenya’s political landscape.

The fallout from Muturi’s dismissal

Muturi’s dismissal has already sparked discontent among his supporters. The timing of the move, coming just as Ruto prepares to visit the region, has further inflamed tensions. Many locals perceive the sacking as a sign of disrespect towards their leaders.

Political strategist Kiprotich Mutai argues, “The manner in which Muturi was dismissed has angered many people in Mt. Kenya East. Ruto may have underestimated the political consequences of this decision.”

Furthermore, Kindiki’s failure to hold a major homecoming event is a sign that the region remains skeptical of Ruto’s choices. The perception that Ameru, Aembu, Mbeere, and Watharaka communities are still aligned with Gachagua suggests that Ruto has yet to fully win over Mt Kenya East.

Outlook

According to political analysts, President Ruto’s decision to fire Muturi has set off a chain reaction that could reshape Mt Kenya politics. The upcoming Mbeere North by-election will serve as a critical test of his influence in the region.

If Gachagua and Muturi successfully rally behind a strong candidate, and that candidate wins, it would be seen as a major political setback for Ruto. Such a scenario could signal the beginning of a larger rebellion against his leadership in Mt. Kenya East.