Support for Ruto government rises despite economic woes

By Newsflash Writer

Public support for President William Ruto’s broad-based government is on the rise, even as a large majority of Kenyans continue to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with discontent most pronounced in the politically influential Mt Kenya region, a new TIFA national survey shows.

The survey, conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, interviewed 2,053 adults across all 47 counties and paints a picture of a country grappling with economic hardship while cautiously reassessing the political pact between President Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga that ushered in the broad-based government.

According to the findings, support for the broad-based government has doubled since May, rising from 22 per cent to 44 per cent in November, while opposition has declined from a peak of 64 per cent in August to 48 per cent. This shift suggests a softening of public resistance to the arrangement, even though the country remains sharply divided.

Broad-based government gains ground

TIFA notes that the broad-based government is “no longer overwhelmingly rejected,” though it has yet to secure outright national endorsement. The improvement in support comes against the backdrop of Raila Odinga’s death in October and President Ruto’s subsequent outreach to ODM strongholds, particularly Nyanza, developments that may have influenced public sentiment.

The data also shows a strong link between personal economic experiences and attitudes toward the political arrangement.

Among respondents who said their economic situation has improved since the 2022 election, 65 per cent support the broad-based government. Conversely, 57 per cent of those who reported a worsening situation oppose it.

Despite this modest political rebound for the government, the economic reality facing most households remains bleak. Nearly two-thirds of Kenyans—67 per cent—say their personal or family economic situation has worsened since the last election, although this represents a slight improvement from earlier surveys. Only 15 per cent report that their situation has improved. Employment figures underline the pressure: while about 63 per cent of adults are working either full- or part-time, more than one-third remain unemployed, and just nine per cent of households earn more than KSh50,000 per month.

Country ‘heading in the wrong direction’

Even with rising acceptance of the broad-based government, pessimism about Kenya’s overall direction remains widespread. The survey shows that 68 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 17 per cent who think it is moving in the right one.

Regional breakdowns reveal stark contrasts. Mt Kenya stands out as the most dissatisfied region, with 83 per cent of residents saying the country is on the wrong path—the highest level of pessimism nationally. Nairobi follows at 76 per cent, while similarly high negative views are recorded in Lower Eastern and the Coast.

By contrast, Northern Kenya and Central Rift are relatively less negative, though even there positive views fail to reach a majority. TIFA observes that perceptions of the country’s direction are closely tied to personal economic experience. Among those who feel better off than in 2022, 59 per cent say Kenya is moving in the right direction. Among those whose situation has worsened, 83 per cent believe the country is headed the wrong way.

Economy dominates public concerns

Asked to identify the single most serious problem facing the country, Kenyans overwhelmingly pointed to the economy. Two-thirds of respondents cited unemployment, poverty, hunger, inflation, high prices, or taxation as the country’s top challenge. Unemployment and poverty alone accounted for 44 per cent of responses, while inflation and high taxes drew 23 per cent. Corruption followed at 20 per cent, with all other issues registering negligible concern.

Notably, views on the country’s most pressing problems vary little across political divides. Supporters and opponents of the broad-based government alike prioritise economic survival over political or governance concerns, underscoring what TIFA describes as the weak ideological distinctions between Kenya’s major political camps.

The survey also highlights structural pressures shaping daily life. Although liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has overtaken firewood as the most commonly used cooking fuel nationally—a shift attributed to policy interventions such as the removal of VAT—sharp rural-urban and income disparities persist in access to cleaner energy.

Overall, the findings suggest a complex national mood: a public increasingly willing to give President Ruto’s broad-based government a chance, yet deeply frustrated by economic hardship and unconvinced that the country is on the right trajectory. As Kenya edges toward the 2027 elections, the survey indicates that economic delivery—rather than political realignments—will remain the decisive test for the government