President William Ruto pose for a photo with Western Kenya leaders at State House, Nairobi, on Wednesday, 26th March, 2025.Photo/PCS
By Wanderi Kamau
President William Ruto is facing a delicate balancing act as he seeks to reassure the Western Kenya political bloc amid growing concerns over Raila Odinga’s increasing influence in Kenya Kwanza.
In a high-stakes meeting at State House on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, Ruto met with top Western Kenya leaders, including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Cabinet Secretaries Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs) and Deborah Mulongo (Health), and Governors Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Kenneth Lusaka (Bungoma), and Paul Otuoma (Busia).
A statement from the Presidency framed the meeting as a routine engagement on development projects, highlighting key issues such as agricultural value chains, infrastructure, healthcare, and access to clean water.
However, political analysts suggest that the underlying agenda was far more political, with Ruto seeking to contain growing unease in the Mulembe Nation over Raila’s increasing prominence in government circles.
The Western Kenya discontent
The growing disquiet within the Western Kenya bloc stems from multiple factors, chief among them the perception that Raila Odinga, who has historically been the region’s political kingpin, is now enjoying preferential treatment in Ruto’s government at the expense of those who backed the Kenya Kwanza alliance in 2022.
This perception was exacerbated by recent appointments of Raila allies as Principal Secretaries, a move seen as a strategic olive branch to the opposition leader.
Read more: Mulembe MPs defend Wetang’ula against ‘unwarranted attacks’
Musalia Mudavadi, who dissolved his Amani National Congress (ANC) party to fully integrate into Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), is reportedly feeling politically shortchanged. His supporters had expected greater rewards, including more government appointments and political leverage.
Instead, they have watched as Raila’s allies gain a foothold in government, while Western Kenya was left out of additional PS appointments.
Adding to the tension is the fact that Moses Wetang’ula, who refused to dissolve his Ford-Kenya party despite pressure from Ruto, has found himself increasingly sidelined within Kenya Kwanza. Wetang’ula’s refusal to fold his party is believed to have caused friction with Ruto, with some analysts suggesting that the recent attempt by ODM MPs to impeach him as National Assembly Speaker had tacit approval from certain Kenya Kwanza insiders who see him as expendable.
Raila’s strategic moves
Despite publicly denying that he is in government, Raila has been engaging with senior government officials, Cabinet Secretaries, and diplomats—moves that have not gone unnoticed in political circles.
His meetings, coupled with the government’s appointment of his allies to strategic positions, have fueled speculation that he is being positioned for a larger role in the administration, possibly in preparation for the 2027 elections.
Read more: Why Babu, Sifuna & Wanyonyi snubbed Ruto’s Nairobi tour
“Raila has always played the long game. His strategy has been to remain relevant and keep himself close to the levers of power, even when he is officially in the opposition,” says political analyst John Mokua. “The Western Kenya leadership, especially Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, are beginning to see the writing on the wall—that Raila’s influence within Kenya Kwanza is growing, and their own political fortunes may be diminishing.”
Ruto’s response
Faced with growing unease from his Western Kenya allies, Ruto is working to reassure them that they still have a place in his administration. The State House meeting was seen as part of this broader strategy to maintain unity in his camp as he navigates the shifting political landscape ahead of 2027.
“We are engaging leaders from across the country to accelerate the implementation of our national development agenda, ensuring no region is left behind,” Ruto said in the official statement. However, sources indicate that behind closed doors, the discussions were more political, with Ruto urging his Western Kenya allies to remain patient and united.
Mudavadi’s growing frustration
Mudavadi’s discontent came to the fore following the recent attack on Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, allegedly by Raila supporters. Salasya claimed that the attack was orchestrated as part of a broader scheme to intimidate leaders in the region who are seen as pro-Ruto.
Mudavadi, in his reaction, condemned the attack but found himself heckled by a section of the crowd, with chants of “Heshimu Raila” (Respect Raila) ringing in the air.
“It is unfortunate that our politics is still marred by intolerance. We must allow every leader to express their views freely without resorting to violence,” Mudavadi stated.
However, insiders suggest that Mudavadi is increasingly frustrated by Raila’s growing stature in Kenya Kwanza, especially given that he took a major political risk by folding his party to align fully with Ruto. The fear among his allies is that Raila could eventually outmaneuver him in the race to solidify Western Kenya’s support in 2027.
The 2027 factor
Ruto’s engagement with Western Kenya is also viewed through the lens of his 2027 re-election strategy. Having experienced growing friction with Mt Kenya leaders, particularly following recent political realignments, Ruto is keen to consolidate his support in Western Kenya as a counterbalance. However, this strategy is being complicated by Raila’s resurgence and the internal wrangles within Kenya Kwanza.
Read more:Revealed: Why Mudavadi, Weta skipped Ruto, Raila event
“Ruto is in a precarious position. He needs Western Kenya to counterbalance any losses in Mt. Kenya, but at the same time, he does not want to alienate Raila completely. It’s a delicate dance,” says political strategist Robert Ayieko.
What next for Mulembe Nation?
For Western Kenya, the coming months will be critical in shaping its political trajectory. Will Mudavadi and Wetang’ula continue to stick with Ruto despite their grievances, or will they start charting a different path? Will Raila’s growing influence in government translate into tangible benefits for the region, and if so, how will that impact the existing political dynamics?
“We are watching keenly,” says Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka. “What we want is a fair deal for Western Kenya. Whether that comes from Ruto or Raila, our people must benefit.”
As the 2027 race begins to take shape, Ruto’s ability to manage internal tensions within Kenya Kwanza while countering Raila’s rising star will determine not only his fortunes in Western Kenya but also his broader re-election prospects.
Mudavadi and Wetang’ula also skipped Ruto’s pact signing ceremony with Raila at the KICC.
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