Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Ex-DP Rigathi Gachagua and DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa on January 27, 2025/ Handout
By Newsflash Team
Opposition leaders have enlisted a consulting firm to assist in identifying the most suitable presidential candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 general election, aiming for a first-round win.
The consultants have a six-month window to produce a preliminary report, meaning a front-runner should be known by December.
One presidential hopeful, speaking anonymously to Newsflash, said the opposition cannot afford missteps when facing such a calculating rival. The candidate withheld the identity of the consulting firm, citing concerns about potential sabotage from political opponents.
Referring to an early draft of a strategy blueprint meant to steer the firm’s activities, the politician said their choice would be grounded in data. He also stressed that most aspirants prefer consensus-building, which could reduce the likelihood of internal divisions.
The fledgling coalition is taking deliberate steps to keep its strategy under wraps, wary of possible infiltration by government operatives.
“I support the idea of involving professionals in this process. Our leadership is united by a single mission—to send William Ruto home. We’ll announce our candidate when the time is right. Until then, we want to build momentum that lasts to election day,” said Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo, a close confidant of Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, on Saturday.
Maanzo added that the team is open to any method that increases their chances of unseating Ruto.
“Think back to 2002 when Raila Odinga declared ‘Kibaki Tosha.’ We could see one of our senior leaders do the same—just say ‘so-and-so Tosha’ and rally the troops. We’ll also conduct polls and surveys. Consensus remains key. Our real strength lies in timing—we want to keep Ruto guessing,” he said.
Some opposition aspirants have already hired private experts to conduct opinion research on their behalf. Departing from the usual behind-the-scenes negotiations and political deals, this emerging plan relies on a methodical, evidence-driven approach—leveraging opinion polls, ground feedback, regional factors, and electability analysis to shape the final ticket.
A scientific strategy to unseat Ruto
This plan involves hiring reputable polling agencies to measure each aspirant’s popularity, credibility, and national appeal. It also includes scenario simulations to assess how different candidate combinations would perform.
Key figures at the center of this strategy include former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, ex-Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, and Martha Karua of the People’s Liberation Party.
Others in the mix include ex-Public Service CS Justin Muturi, PNU’s Peter Munya, and former Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party are reportedly backing the opposition initiative.
Read more: Ruto allies threaten to arrest Gachagua
Insiders say the scientific process will also review past election trends, simulate match-ups, and evaluate the regional and demographic weight of each potential candidate.
“Our intention is to let data, not emotion or hierarchy, guide us to a winning ticket,” said a source within the coalition.
Gachagua, during a Thursday visit to Musyoka’s Tseikuru residence in Kitui, urged for patience regarding the opposition’s presidential candidate.
“Kenyans shouldn’t pressure us to unveil our candidate too early, as it would give Ruto a chance to prepare obstacles. Let us take our time. What matters is that we are all focused on removing him from office,” Gachagua said.
Sources also indicate that the coalition plans to introduce a powerful new post, possibly a prime minister’s position, to attract younger voters. With Gen Z estimated to make up 10 million voters, this is a strategic move to tap into youth support.
In the meantime, key leaders have resolved to return to their regional strongholds to solidify their bases.
“As the saying goes, all politics is local. We want to create local powerhouses who can later contribute to a stronger national force. Once that’s done, we’ll move forward in unity,” an adviser close to Gachagua told Newsflash.
“We’ve already run some preliminary models and have a good sense of how things might unfold. Our ambition is to win this in a single round.”
Wamalwa added his voice to the call for unity: “We should rally behind the candidate picked through this process. Let’s ensure Ruto goes back to selling chickens.”
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, an ally of Matiang’i, said the coalition would explore all available routes in choosing their flag bearer.
“We encourage those who want to compete to step forward with courage. We can reach a consensus, but if we must use delegates, the process must be transparent and fair,” Onyonka said.
Read more: Opposition demands release of IEBC exit report
Nonetheless, personal ambition and egos could complicate matters, especially if a seasoned or well-known contender distrusts the findings.
“If this method is applied openly and has the buy-in of all major players, it could change how coalitions function and pose a serious challenge to Ruto’s re-election,” said Prof Gitile Naituli.
With President Ruto seemingly having secured the support—or at least the non-opposition—of ODM leader Raila Odinga, the opposition now faces the formidable task of rebuilding and forming a fresh, effective alliance. Odinga’s likely absence from the 2027 ballot opens up space for a new leader to step forward.
