Most ODM supporters back Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi faction- TIFA

By Newsflash Writer

A majority of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters have thrown their weight behind the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, highlighting growing resistance within the party to its cooperation with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration through the Broad-Based Government (BBG), a new TIFA survey has found.

According to the poll, 74 per cent of ODM supporters identified with the Linda Mwananchi faction, compared to 20 per cent who backed the rival Linda Ground (Tuko Tayari) camp associated with Oburu Odinga and supporters of the BBG. The remaining 6 per cent expressed no opinion.

Apart from Sifuna, other prominent figures in the faction include Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

Support for Linda Mwananchi was strongest in Lower Eastern (100 per cent), followed by Mt Kenya and Western (89 per cent each), Central Rift (87 per cent), Nairobi (79 per cent), Coast (74 per cent), South Rift (70 per cent) and Northern (67 per cent). Linda Ground recorded its highest backing in Nyanza at 40 per cent, reflecting the influence of leaders supporting the Broad-Based Government.

TIFA observed that divisions within ODM have continued to widen over the party’s cooperation with President Ruto’s administration.

“The split that this arrangement has caused within ODM has continued to widen,” the pollster said, noting that differences over the future of the BBG remain unresolved.

Majority reject Broad-Based Government

The survey also found that most Kenyans remain opposed to the Broad-Based Government forged between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Overall, 52 per cent of respondents said they oppose the BBG, compared to 30 per cent who support it. Another 15 per cent had no opinion, while 4 per cent said they were unaware of the arrangement.

TIFA noted that support for the BBG has remained largely unchanged since May 2026 at 30 per cent, suggesting the arrangement has reached a political ceiling despite repeated efforts to popularise it.

“The continuing split within ODM… has appeared to have created a fairly stable ‘ceiling’ as to how much support the BBG can attract,” the report said.

Regionally, support for the BBG declined in Northern (down 15 percentage points), Nyanza (down 14 points) and Mt Kenya (down four points) compared with the previous survey. The biggest drop since November 2025 was recorded in Western, where support fell from 62 per cent to 29 per cent, followed by Nyanza, where it declined from 59 per cent to 35 per cent.

The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, involving 2,048 respondents across all 47 counties. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.