How Trump’s tariffs could reshape Africa’s trade future

By Newsflash Team

As global trade tensions rise, Africa finds itself caught in the crossfire of a shifting economic order.

The continent is bracing for the expiry of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in two months and the impact of newly re-imposed US tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration.

The return of aggressive tariff policies—set to take effect on August 1—threatens to upend trade relations, weaken Africa’s negotiating leverage, and undo years of export-driven growth. Trump has issued ultimatums to six nations, including South Africa, demanding swift trade deals or the imposition of steep tariffs. Economists warn that Sub-Saharan Africa stands to lose 4% of its GDP over the next decade due to these escalating trade conflicts. Trade, long a catalyst for growth on the continent, is now a battleground for new power dynamics.

According to Standard Bank’s chief economist Goolam Ballim, the reconfigured trade environment means Africa must now navigate a fragmented world economy where bloc-wide negotiations are being replaced by bilateral deals. Trump’s recent meeting with leaders of Gabon, Senegal, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, and Liberia suggests a preference for case-by-case deals—excluding broader regional frameworks like Agoa.

Agoa’s uncertain future

While the Trump administration’s Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said an extension of Agoa might be considered, he added that any future discussions would need to address the numerous tariff and non-tariff barriers that still exist across Africa. Agoa, enacted in 2000, allows duty-free access for over 1,800 African products to the US market. While initially dominated by oil exports, the agreement has diversified into manufacturing and mining sectors.

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However, South Africa, once a major Agoa beneficiary, is now under direct threat. In a letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump announced that all South African exports would be hit with a 30% tariff starting August 1. This follows earlier sanctions imposed in February in response to South Africa’s domestic policies and foreign positions. The July 9 deadline for new trade deals has lapsed with only two preliminary agreements—in the UK and Vietnam—being concluded. With Agoa talks now sidelined, analysts recommend that African nations prepare alternative trade strategies.

African business leaders are calling for a coordinated response. They argue that the continent must invest in deeper regional integration, accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and improve its role in global supply chains.

Calls for continental unity

At the Standard Bank Africa Unlocked 2025 Conference in Cape Town, participants emphasized that Africa must assert its economic strength through unity. Speakers urged governments to streamline tax regimes, deepen financial markets, and create investor-friendly environments to counterbalance Trump’s tariff threats.

Ballim noted that with access to the US market becoming more difficult, Africa must look eastwards and southwards—to China, the Middle East, and South America—for trade partnerships. He believes that while the 30% tariff on South African goods may be revised downward, the shift in US-SA relations is permanent.

He warned that the benefits of Agoa may soon be significantly reduced or eliminated. Still, this shift may open doors for African manufacturers to integrate into global value chains, filling gaps left by declining US participation. Ballim revealed that some South African firms are already receiving new orders from Middle Eastern and Asian markets, a trend he sees as a silver lining amid the turmoil.

Trump’s strategy and Africa’s dilemma

Johnson Weru, Kenya’s former Trade Principal Secretary, said Trump’s strategy reflects his disdain for multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which originally granted the Agoa waiver. That waiver expires in September 2025. Trump’s timing, Weru noted, is strategic—by August, the US will no longer be bound by WTO provisions, giving him legal cover to impose unilateral tariffs.

Trade talks between Kenya and Trump’s administration stalled, and Biden’s rebooted negotiations fared no better. Trump’s latest correspondence to Ramaphosa blames South Africa for long-standing trade deficits and declares the imposition of a 30% flat tariff. He warned of harsher tariffs if South Africa retaliates, reinforcing his commitment to tariff-based diplomacy.

In response, Ramaphosa said the 30% figure misrepresents the actual trade balance and pledged to continue negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump has sent similar letters to other countries—including Japan, South Korea, Myanmar, and Malaysia—with more on the way. This aggressive approach suggests a complete departure from cooperative trade models.

Dr. Kizito Sabala, a diplomacy lecturer at the University of Nairobi, called Trump’s actions the death knell for multilateralism. “Agoa survives only if Trump believes the US benefits,” he said. Otherwise, bilateralism will dominate.

Time for a new trade playbook

With Trump threatening extra tariffs for countries aligning with the Brics+ bloc, analysts say Africa must regroup under frameworks like AfCFTA to negotiate as one. Dr. Benson Musila of Riara University argued that just as the EU forces Trump to negotiate collectively, Africa must demand the same. “He cannot, for instance, sidestep the EU to deal directly with Germany. The same should apply to Africa,” he said.

Meanwhile, China continues to offer duty-free access to 53 African countries, presenting itself as a more stable trade partner. In reaction, Trump has shifted his Africa strategy from aid to trade, promising “long-term benefits” over traditional development funding. He has cut USAID funding and shut down several assistance programs, claiming that economic partnerships will yield better results.

Despite the uncertainty, Ballim is optimistic. He predicts Africa could emerge as the new heart of global manufacturing—if it seizes the moment. “This is economic diplomacy on steroids,” he said. “The choices are tough, but with the right strategy, Africa can not only survive but thrive.”